Electoral College Map Projector Swings State Back to Kamala Harris

An election forecaster’s Electoral College map, which does not list any state as a toss-up, has moved Michigan to lean toward Kamala Harris.
RealClearPolitics’ No Toss-Up map—which gives every state a definitive Republican or Democratic lean, even if they are neck-and-neck—shifted the Wolverine State from leaning Donald Trump to leaning Harris on Tuesday.
The no-toss-up map basically allocates states, or more specifically each state’s Electoral College votes, to a candidate based on average polling, regardless of the gap. The “no toss-up” map gives Trump 297 electoral votes to Harris’ 241. When toss-ups are taken into account, Trump still leads 219 to 215, with 104 electoral votes, across eight states and one district, up for grabs.
The key swing state of Michigan went from “lean Democrat” to “lean Republican” on October 9. It is currently the only battleground state in the No Toss-Up map that leans Democratic. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.
Harris’ clearest path to victory in November is to win the three swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump could achieve 270 Electoral College votes by defeating Harris in Michigan and the Sun Belt swing states of Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
The battleground states of Wisconsin and Nevada also shifted from lean Democrat to lean Republican in the No Toss-Up map this month, with Pennsylvania going lean GOP on September 29.
Harris has an average lead over Trump in Michigan of 0.5 points (48.2 percent to 47.7), according to RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregation, and is therefore listed as a toss-up state.
The six other main swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—as well as Minnesota and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, are also listed as toss-ups in RealClearPolitics’ Electoral College ratings map.
The former president is leading on average in Arizona by 2.2 points, Georgia (2.4 points), Nevada (0.5), North Carolina (1), Pennsylvania (0.6), and Wisconsin (0.6).
An AtlasIntel poll of 983 likely voters in Michigan showed Trump with a 1.2-point lead over Harris (49.3 percent to 48.1) in a poll which includes Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. The survey was conducted October 25 to 29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
An Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey of Michigan voters found 49 percent supported Trump, while 48 percent backed Harris.
“With one week until Election Day, the race remains a toss-up,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.
“The survey finds the important voting bloc of Michigan union household voters breaking for Harris, 55 percent to 41 percent, while non-union household members break for Trump, 52 percent to 46 percent.”
The Emerson College Polling Michigan survey was conducted from October 25 to 27, among 1,000 likely voters. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey of 400 likely Michigan voters, carried out from October 23 to 27, gave Harris a 5-point lead (51.7 percent to 46.6). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.